Retention is what decides whether a programme works, and a flat annual estimate hides it completely.
Retention compounds, and not in your favour
Eighty percent monthly retention sounds healthy until you see it applied six times. The chart makes the decay visible rather than leaving it in an annual average.
Overhead included
Fixed monthly overhead is applied every month regardless of how many participants remain, which is exactly what makes the back half of a run look different from the front.
Frequently asked questions
- How is retention applied?
- It compounds monthly. Starting with 25 participants at 80% retention leaves 20 after one month, 16 after two, and so on for the length of the run.
- Why does profit fall even when revenue looks fine?
- Because overhead is charged every month while participant numbers decay. The month where those two lines cross is usually the useful thing to find.